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%\usepackage{qtree}
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%\VignetteIndexEntry{An Introduction to rpms}
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\newtheorem{proposition}{Proposition}[section]
\newtheorem{example}{Example}[subsection]

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\newcommand{\Appendix}
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\def\thesection{Appendix~\Alph{section}}
%\def\thesubsection{\Alph{section}.\arabic{subsection}}
\def\thesubsection{A.\arabic{subsection}}
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%% almost as usual
\author{Daniell Toth\\U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics}
\title{\pkg{rpms}: An \proglang{R} Package for Modeling Survey Data with Regression Trees}

%% for pretty printing and a nice hypersummary also set:
\Plainauthor{Daniell Toth} %% comma-separated
\Plaintitle{rpms: An R Package for Modeling Survey Data with Regression Trees} %% without formatting
\Shorttitle{\pkg{rpms}: Recursive Partitioning for Modeling Survey Data} %% a short title (if necessary)

%% an abstract and keywords
\Abstract{
In this article, we introduce the \proglang{R} package, \pkg{rpms} 
(Recursive Partitioning for Modeling Survey Data). 
The main function \code{rpms} fits a linear model to the data conditioning 
on the splits selected through the recursive partitioning algorithm. 
This application of recursive partitioning produces design consistent 
regression tree models of survey data with one-stage designs, accounting for
any stratification and clustering as well as unequal probability of selection. 

We examine the properties of the algorithm using samples from a simulated 
dataset and  we provide a number examples using household level data from
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure survey. 
These applications demonstrate the easily interpretable structure and the 
ability of regression trees to handle large datasets with complex 
associations among the variables.
}

\Keywords{machine learning, nonparametric, recursive partitioning, 
sample design} %with fomatting

\Plainkeywords{machine learning, nonparametric, recursive partitioning, 
sample design} %% without formatting
%% at least one keyword must be supplied


%% publication information
%% NOTE: Typically, this can be left commented and will be filled out by the technical editor
%% \Volume{50}
%% \Issue{9}
%% \Month{June}
%% \Year{2012}
%% \Submitdate{2012-06-04}
%% \Acceptdate{2012-06-04}

%% The address of (at least) one author should be given
%% in the following format:
\Address{
  Daniell Toth\\
  Office of Survey Methods Research\\
  Senior Research Mathematical Statistician\\
  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics\\
  2 Massachusetts Avenue NE//
  Washington, DC 20212\\
  Telephone: +1/202/691-7380
  E-mail: \email{toth.daniell@bls.gov}
  %URL: \url{http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/~zeileis/}
}
%% It is also possible to add a telephone and fax number
%% before the e-mail in the following format:
%% Telephone: +43/512/507-7103
%% Fax: +43/512/507-2851

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\begin{document}
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%% Note that you should use the \pkg{}, \proglang{} and \code{} commands.

%\section[About Java]{About \proglang{Java}}
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<<R_options, echo=FALSE, results=hide>>=
options(prompt = "R> ", continue = "+  ", width = 70, useFancyQuotes = FALSE)
@

\section{Introduction}

In this article we present the \proglang{R} \citep{R} package  
\pkg{rpms} \citep{rpms}. 
This package provides a function \code{rpms} that returns an object of class 
``rpms", which is a representation of a regression tree model, 
as well as a number of functions that operate on objects of this class. 
A design-consistent regression tree is achieved by recursively 
partitioning the dataset and fitting the specified linear model on each node 
separately. 
The variable on which to split is selected at each stage using a nonparameteric
test on the residuals and the splitting is ended using a stopping-rule based
on this test.  
This leads to an algorithm that has unbiased variable selection and 
design consistent model parameters. 
The algorithm assumes a one-stage design that accounts 
for stratification and clustering 
as well as unequal probability of selection. 

%In section \ref{algorithm} we

In Section \ref{demos} we will demonstrate the main function of the package, 
\code{rpms}, which returns an object of class "rpms" and  the methods 
defined for this class. Section \ref{ce} contains an application of the package
to U.S. Consumer Expenditure (CE) survey data.

<<load_pckg, echo=FALSE>>=
library(rpms)

@

%\section{The Algorithm}\label{algorithm}

%\cite{su04}  \citep{su04}
%\cite{rpms} \citep{rpms} \cite{morgan63} \cite{hothorn06}

%\subsection{Variable Selection}

%\subsection{Estimating the Model Parameters}



\section{Demonstrations}\label{demos}

In this section we demonstrate the functions
provided in the \pkg{rpms} package.
In order to demonstrate the properties of the algorithm we simulate a population 
\code{simd} of clustered data.

\subsection{The Simulated Data}


<<simulate_data, echo=FALSE, results=hide>>=
set.seed(28)

getpop <- function(N, m){
csig <- 4
esig <- 1
xsig <- .3
id <- nu <- eps <- vc <- x <- rep(0, N)
for(i in 0:(floor(N/m)-1)){
  nu_i <- rnorm(1, 0, csig)
  vc_i <- rbinom(1, 6, .35)
   x_i <- log(runif(1, 1, 10000), base=2)-2
  for(j in 1:m){
     id[i*m + j] <- i
     nu[i*m + j] <- nu_i
     vc[i*m + j] <- vc_i
      x[i*m + j] <- x_i+rnorm(1, 0, xsig)
    eps[i*m + j] <- rnorm(1, 0, esig)
  }
}
va<-as.factor(rbinom(N, 3, .5))
vb<-as.factor(rbinom(N, 3, .5))
vc<-as.factor(vc)
vd<-as.factor(ceiling(14*runif(N, 0, 1)))
ve<-as.factor(rbinom(N, 1, .2))
vf<-as.factor(rbinom(N, 1, .5))

b <- ifelse(va ==1, .5, .06)+ ifelse(va ==1 & ve==1, .1, -.2) + 
     ifelse(va %in% c(2,3) & ve ==0, -.3, .07)+
     ifelse(va %in% c(2,3) & ve ==1, -.05, -.1)+
     ifelse(va==0 & ve==1, .2, -.1)

b1 <-  ifelse(va %in% c(2,3), -2, 3)
y <- b1*(x-9) + nu + eps


return(cbind.data.frame(id, y, x, va, vb, vc, vd, ve, vf, b1))
}

N <- 10000 #pop size
n<- 400 #sample size
m <- 20 #cluster size

simd <- getpop(N, m)
simd_p <- (ncol(simd)-1)

gsamp<-sample(nrow(simd), 1000)
@

There are $\Sexpr{N}$ observations
of the random variables,
$(y, x, va, vb, vc, vd, ve, vf)$, where $x$ and $y$ are continuous random
variables and the $v$-variables are categorical.
Each observation $(y_i, x_i, va_i, vb_i, vc_i, vd_i, ve_i, vf_i)$, 
is independent and identically distributed within a cluster,
but the distributions of some of the random variables depend on the cluster.

For example, the values of $vc$ are the same for every observation in a 
given cluster, and the values of $x$ are correlated 
within the cluster, but independent between clusters.
The dataset contains the label \code{id}, which is unique for each cluster.  
Figure~\ref{simplot1} shows a plot of the variables
$y$ and $x,$ where observations from two randomly chosen clusters are colored
to show the homogeneity of $y$ and $x$ within clusters.

\begin{center}
\begin{figure}[h]
<<plot_sim_data, echo=FALSE, fig=TRUE, height=4, width=7>>=
cluscols<-rep("grey", length(gsamp))
cluspch<-rep(19, length(gsamp))
cluscols[which(simd[gsamp, "id"]==59)] <- "dark blue"
cluscols[which(simd[gsamp, "id"]==478)] <- "brown"
cluspch[which(cluscols=="grey")] <- 1
plot(y~x, simd[gsamp,], col=cluscols,  pch=cluspch)
#points(y~x, simd[which(simd[gsamp, "id"]==305),], col="dark blue")
#points(y~x, simd[which(simd[gsamp, "id"]==147),], col="brown")
@

\caption{Plot of simulated population values, with variable
$y$ on the vertical-axis and $x$ on the horizontal-axis.
Two randomly chosen clusters are colored (blue and brown).
This plot shows the homogeneity of $y$ and $x$ within clusters 
but does not seem to show a linear relationship between $x$ and $y.$}
\label{simplot1}
\end{figure}
\end{center}

Despite this scatter plot of the data not showing a 
linear relationship between $x$ and $y$, the random
variable $y$ was simulated from a linear model.
The $i$-th observation of variable $y$ in cluster $j$ is determined by
\begin{equation}
y_{ij}=\beta_{ij}(x_{ij}-9) + \nu_{j} + \epsilon_{ij},
\label{simmod}
\end{equation}
where $\nu_{j}$ and $\epsilon_{ij}$ are mean zero noise terms, 
and $\beta_{ij}$ is a function of the random variable $va.$
The coefficient $\beta_{ij}=3$ if the categorical variable $va_{ij} \in \{0, 1\}$ 
and $\beta_{ij}=-2$ if $va_{ij} \in \{2, 3\}.$




%<<summary_data, echo=FALSE,results=tex>>=
%xtable(simd_sum)
%by(simd[gsamp,], simd[gsamp,]$id, nrow)
%@

Figure~\ref{simplot2} is the same plot with the points that have
$va_{ij} \in \{0, 1\}$ colored blue and the points with $va_{ij} \in \{2,3 \}$ 
colored gold. Then the linear relationship is obvious.

<<get_va_colors, echo=FALSE, results=hide>>=
cl <- match(simd$b1, unique(simd$b1))


blin<-lm(y~x, simd[gsamp[which(cl[gsamp]==1)], ])
olin<-lm(y~x, simd[gsamp[which(cl[gsamp]==2)], ])

@

\begin{center}
\begin{figure}
<<va_plot, echo=FALSE, fig=TRUE, height=4, width=7>>=
plot(y~x, simd[gsamp,], col=c("blue", "orange")[cl[gsamp]])
abline(blin, col="dark blue")
abline(olin, col="dark orange")
@
\caption{Plot of simulated population values, with variable
$y$ on the vertical-axis and $x$ on the horizontal-axis.  
In this plot with the points with
$va_{ij} \in \{0, 1\}$ colored blue and the points with $va \in \{2,3 \}$ 
colored gold, the linear relationship between $x$ and $y$ becomes obvious.}
\label{simplot2}
\end{figure}
\end{center}

We will use this simulated dataset \code{simd} to demonstrate 
the \code{rpms} function and several functions provided in the 
package that operate on ``rpms" objects.
Since \code{rpms} is intended to allow inference about a population 
using a regression tree estimated from survey data, 
we will treat the dataset as the population and sample from it
with different sampling designs to provide samples for use in the examples.

\subsection[The rpms Function]{The \code{rpms} Function}

The \code{rpms} function has two required arguments: 
\code{rp_equ} and \code{data}.
The recursive partitioning is an \proglang{R} formula which identifies 
the dependent variable on the left-side of the ``\code{~}" and
specifies which variables the algorithm should consider for splitting 
the dataset on the right-side. 
Each variable is separated by ``\code{+}" symbol and every variable 
listed in the \code{rp_equ} should be the name of either a numeric or 
categorical variable in the data.frame specified by the \code{data} argument. 

The function \code{rpms} has an optional argument \code{e_equ} which 
is also an \proglang{R} formula.
This argument is used to specify the linear equation the algorithm should
fit to the dependent variable of each node of the tree.
The dependent variable in \code{rp_equ} and \code{e_equ} must be the same.
If $y$ is the dependent variable and the \code{e_equ} is not given, 
by default, the function fits the linear equation $y=\beta$ to the data in 
each end-node. 
In this case, the parameter $\beta$ is the mean of $y$ given the observation 
is contained within that end-node. 


\subsubsection{Simple Random Sample}

The following code fits a regression tree model for $E[y]$ using data from a simple 
random sample of size $n=\Sexpr{n}$ from the population and assigns it 
to an object called \code{iid_tree}.
<<iid_tree>>=

s0<-sample(N, n)

iid_tree <- rpms(rp_equ = y~va+vb+vc+ve+vf, data = simd[s0,])

@

<<tree_stats, echo=FALSE, results=hide>>=
ybar01 <- round(iid_tree$coef[[1]], 2)
ybar23 <- round(iid_tree$coef[[2]], 2)

mu01 <- round(mean(simd[which(simd$va %in% c(0,1)), "y"]), 2)
mu23 <- round(mean(simd[which(simd$va %in% c(2,3)), "y"]), 2)

lnc1 <- round(iid_tree$ln_coef[1], 2)
lnc2 <-round(iid_tree$ln_coef[2], 2)

nnames <- length(names(iid_tree))
@


The result of the \code{rpms} call above is a binary tree 
with one split on the variable $va$ shown in Figure~\ref{iidtree}.
The algorithm chose to split only on the variable $va$ the only
variable included in the recursive partitioning equation to which the dependent
variable $y$ is related (Equation~\ref{simmod}).
According to the tree, using this one sample of size $n=\Sexpr{n},$ 
observations with a value of $va \in \{0, 1\},$
the mean value of $y$ is $\Sexpr{ybar01}$ and $\Sexpr{ybar23}$
for observations with $va \in \{2, 3\}.$  
The population means of $y$ for the two domains are
$\Sexpr{mu01}$ and $\Sexpr{mu23}$ respectively.


<<qtree_plot, echo=FALSE,results=tex>>=
qtree(iid_tree, title="iid tree", label="iidtree",
      caption="This is the tree fit from the simple random sample.")
@

\subsubsection{The rpms object}

The object \code{iid_tree} is an R object of class ``rpms",
which is a list with $\Sexpr{nnames}$ elements and ``print" and ``predict" methods 
defined for it.
The internal elements of the object contain the necessary information 
to describe the tree model and allow the methods and other functions to 
operate on the object.
Though the information is contained there, it was intended to be accessed 
through the more user friendly methods and functions.

\subsubsection{The Print Method}

The class ``rpms" has a print method.
The output of this method depends on whether the \code{e_equ} fits the mean
or a linear equation with at least one independent variable.
In the case of \code{iid_tree}, the estimating equation defaulted to fitting
the mean at each end node, and so the output of print method is
\begin{footnotesize}
<<print_iid_tree>>=
iid_tree
@
\end{footnotesize}

The first item displayed is the variables considered for partitioning and
the second is the model fit at the end of each node.
In this case there was no model given in the call to \code{rpms} so
the model, $y = \beta,$ is fit at the end
of each node, so $\beta$ is the mean of the dependent variable $y$ in each node.

The last item displayed by the method is a linear representation of the 
fitted regression tree model.
The first column shows the split and the next two give the coefficient and
its design based standard error. 
The coefficient can be interpreted as the effect satisfying
that split has on the mean.
For example by examining \code{iid_tree} for observation $i$ begin with a 
estimate for $E[y_i]$ of $\Sexpr{lnc1}.$  
If the the observation satisfies the split condition, that is, if 
$va_i \in \{2, 3\},$ then add $\Sexpr{lnc2}$ to the estimate of $E[y_i].$
If the tree had more than one split, you would continue adding the coefficient
of every split satisfied by the observation to the estimate of $E[y_i].$

If we estimated a tree fitting the linear model 
$y=\beta_1x+\beta_0+\epsilon$ on each node, 
then the print method displays only the coefficients of the model and not the
standard errors.
For example, using the data from the same simple random sample,
\begin{footnotesize}
<<iid_reg>>=
iid_reg <- rpms(rp_equ = y~va+vb+vc+ve+vf, e_equ = y~x, data = simd[s0,])

iid_reg
@
\end{footnotesize}

\subsubsection{The Predict Method}

<<get_new_data, echo=FALSE, results=hide>>=
pre1 <- sample(N, 8)
new <- as.data.frame.array(simd[pre1, c("x", "va", "vb", "vc", "vd", "ve", "vf")], row.names=1:8)
new[,"x"] <- round(new[,"x"], 2)
@


Once we have an rpms object we can use it to predict new values 
given values of the covariates used for the recursive partitioning and 
in the estimating equation.
For example, suppose we have a dataframe 
\begin{footnotesize}
<<new_data>>=
new
@
\end{footnotesize}
We can impute the 8 missing values for the random variable $y$ as predicted 
by the regression tree model.
\begin{footnotesize}
<<predict>>=
predict(iid_reg, newdata=new)

simd$y[pre1]

@
\end{footnotesize}

\subsubsection{Cluster Sample}

Now instead of a simple random sample of our data we will
consider a cluster sample.
We take all the observations in a simple random sample of 20 clusters
and use this data to illustrate the importance of accounting for clusters
in the sample design.
\begin{footnotesize}
<<cluster_sample>>=
cs0 <- which(simd$id %in% sample(unique(simd$id), 20))
@
\end{footnotesize}
Calling \code{rpms} below without identifying cluster labels and assigning it to
\code{ctree1}, we get a tree model that splits not only on the variable $va,$ 
but also on the variable $vc.$ 
\begin{footnotesize}
<<cluster_tree1>>=
ctree1 <- rpms(rp_equ = y~va+vb+vc+ve+vf, data = simd[cs0,])

ctree1
@
\end{footnotesize}

The algorithm chose to split on $vc$ though, we know from 
Equation~(\ref{simmod}), that values of $y$ do not depend on the values $vc.$
This happens because the $y$ values are correlated within a clusters and the value
of $vc$ are constant within a cluster.
Since we only observe data from 20 clusters, it is likely that the algorithm
finds partitions where $y$ values are homogeneous using values of 
$vc$ to split.  
Because the algorithm assumes that the values come from a sample of 400 
independently selected observations the algorithm finds these splits to be
significant.
Accounting for the cluster sample design by specifying the cluster 
identification variable $id$ in the call to \code{rpms}, results in a different 
tree model.

\begin{footnotesize}
<<cluster_tree2>>=
ctree2 <- rpms(rp_equ = y~va+vb+vc+ve+vf, data = simd[cs0,], clusters = ~id)

ctree2
@
\end{footnotesize}

After identifying the clusters, the algorithm no longer finds splits on the
variable $vc$ significant and so the resulting model is very similar to the
model that used simple random sample data and that captures the model used
to generated the simulated data.
The like \code{iid_tree}, \code{ctree2} only has the one split on $va,$ however
the parameter estimates of each end node are closer to the population
values for \code{iid_tree} than they are in \code{ctree2}. 
The model \code{ctree2} is estimated using data that contains much
less information than 200 independent observations so the parameter estimates
are more variable.
This is reflected in the estimated standard deviations of the parameter 
estimates, which are three times as large for \code{ctree2} than 
the parameter estimates of \code{iid_tree}.


\subsection{Functions for Visualizing Trees}

Besides the print function, the \code{rpms} package contains two functions which
help the user visualize the regression-tree model fit using the \code{rpms} 
function. The first, a function called \code{qtree}, we already saw an example 
of in Figure~\ref{iidtree}.
In order to make that figure in \proglang{LaTex} we use a the \code{qtree}
function and put the command
\begin{verbatim}
\usepackage{qtree}
\end{verbatim}
in the preamble of our document.

The exact call to \code{qtree} in order to make the \proglang{LaTeX} code
necessary to draw Figure~\ref{iidtree} was:
\begin{footnotesize}
<<qtree_ex_hid, results=hide>>=
qtree(iid_tree, title="iid tree", label="iidtree",
      caption="This is the tree fit from the simple random sample.")
@
\end{footnotesize}
which produces the following output:
\begin{tiny}
<<qtree_ex_res, echo=FALSE>>=
qtree(iid_tree, title="iid tree", label="iidtree",
      caption="This is the tree fit from the simple random sample.")
@
\end{tiny}
This is code that can be directly put into a \proglang{LaTeX} document 
when the package "qtree" is being used.

The second function is \code{node_plot} which produces a graph of the data and
the linear model fit to the data in the specified end\_node of the tree.
For example, the tree \code{iid_reg} had end\_nodes 2 and 3, so we can
look at the linear model fit at node 2 with the command:
<<nodeplot1, fig=TRUE, height=4, width=7>>=
node_plot(iid_reg, node = 2, data = simd[s0,])
@



\subsection{CE Examples}\label{ce}

<<CE_data, echo=FALSE, results=hide>>=
 ce_n <- nrow(CE)
 ce_p <- ncol(CE)
# 
# workers <- which(CE$FSALARYX>0)
# workers_n <-length(workers)
# 
clus_n <- length(unique(CE$CID))

@
In this section, we demonstrate some of the functions in the package 
with examples using household and expenditure data from the 
Consumer Expenditure Interview dataset for the first quarter of 2014.  
The dataset \code{CE} has $\Sexpr{ce_n}$ observations 
of $\Sexpr{ce_p}$ variables collected from $\Sexpr{clus_n}$ clusters.
This dataset is included (and automatically loaded) with
the \texttt{rpms} package. 

We will use the \code{rpms} function to explore the relationship
between a number of household variables and the propensity of households, 
with income from earned wages, to contribute to a retirement plan.  
The percent of working households that contribute to a retirement account 
is estimated conditioning on a number of characteristics of the household.

We estimate the regression tree model both ignoring the cluster sample and then 
accounting for sample design using the design information contained in the dataset.
Most of the splits obtained in the tree model when we ignore the clustering
are removed once the clusters are accounted for.
This illustrates that the clustering of many of the household variables 
reduces the information obtained from the survey. This leads to less 
certainty concerning differences in propensity between households with different
characteristics observed in the data.
\begin{footnotesize}
<<ce_tree>>=

# CE$saver <- ifelse(CE$FINDRETX>0, 1, 0)
# 
# rate_tree0 <- 
#   rpms(rp_equ = saver~FAM_SIZE+FINCBTAX+NO_EARNR+PERSOT64+CUTENURE+VEHQ+REGION, 
#                 weights = ~FINLWT21, data = CE[workers,], pval=.01) 
# 
# rate_tree1 <- 
#   rpms(rp_equ = saver~FAM_SIZE+FINCBTAX+NO_EARNR+PERSOT64+CUTENURE+VEHQ+REGION, 
#                 weights = ~FINLWT21, clusters = ~CID, data = CE[workers,], pval=.01) 

@
\end{footnotesize}

In each call to the function \code{rpms} an object is assigned the tree model 
with the estimated percentage  of working households that contribute a 
retirement account at each end-node.
In the first model, \code{rate_tree0} is the resulting tree 
which accounts for the unequal probability of selection by identifying the 
sample weights \code{FINLWT21} but ignores the clustered sample-design.

\begin{footnotesize}
<<ce_tree_result>>=

# rate_tree0     
# 
# rate_tree1
@
\end{footnotesize}

In the second model, \code{rate_tree1} is the resulting which accounts for the 
cluster sample-design with unequal probability of selection
by adding the argument \code{clusters = ~CID}.
This informs the algorithm that observations with equal values of
\code{CID} are from the same cluster.
The resulting tree has only the first split on 
household income of \code{rate_tree0}.
Both models used a $p$-value of .05, and were unchanged using a value of .01,
which suggests that we would choose \code{rate_tree1} to make inference, if we
were concerned about overfitting the data.
However, if we are more interested in getting accurate predictions and 
not as worried about overfitting, we might use \code{rate_tree0}.


%\section*{Acknowledgments}
%We would like to acknowledge ... etc.



\bibliography{rpms_refs}{}
%\bibliographystyle{plain}



%\baselineskip=18pt
%-------------------------------------------------- Appendix ----------------------------------------------------------
%\section*{Appendix}
%\begin{appendix}
%\Appendix    % This makes the section title start with Appendix!
%\renewcommand{\theequation}{A.\arabic{equation}}
%\setcounter{equation}{0}
%
%\end{appendix}



%use R command if it says vignette not ascii
%tools::showNonASCIIfile("/home/goddess/Documents/Research/Machine Learning/Recursive Partition/rpms_0_1_0_9003/vignettes/rpms_2016_11_30.Rnw")

\end{document}